Wannan batu yana nazari.
Lokaci: 2021-8-1-2021-8-31
Mahimman kalmomi: ƙuntata samarwa don rage yawan rarar kayan albarkatu
Wannan jagorar fitowar.
Review Binciken kasuwa: farashin ya hauhawa sosai saboda ingantaccen haɓaka daga ƙuntatawar samarwa.
Analysis Binciken wadatattun kayayyaki: Samar da kayayyaki yana ci gaba da yin kwangila, kuma kaya yana juyawa daga tashi zuwa faduwa.
Analysis Binciken buƙatu: yawan zafin jiki da tasirin ruwan sama, aikin buƙata yana da rauni.
Analysis Binciken farashin: kayan albarkatun ƙasa sun faɗi kaɗan, tallafin farashin ya raunana.
Nazarin Macro: manufofin ci gaba mai ɗorewa ba su canzawa kuma masana'antar tana haɓaka da kyau.
Cikakken ra'ayi: A cikin watan Yuli, haɓakawa ta ƙasa baki ɗaya da labarai na ƙuntata samarwa, farashin ƙarfe na ginin gida ya haifar da koma baya. A cikin wannan lokacin, labarai na macro-good suna fitowa akai-akai, cikakken aiwatar da rage darajar; tunanin hasashe ya sake zafafa, kasuwar makoma ta tashi sosai; a karkashin tsammanin rage taƙaitaccen samarwa, masana'antun ƙarfe suna jan farashin tsoffin masana'anta. Farashin ƙarfe ya tashi a lokacin bazara, sama da yadda ake tsammani, galibi saboda manufar rage ƙarar baƙin ƙarfe a wurare da yawa ɗaya bayan ɗaya, wasu kamfanonin ƙarfe sun fara rage samarwa, matsin lamba don sauƙaƙe bayan babban birnin don tura kalaman. Koyaya, tare da farashin suna ci gaba da hauhawa, ƙarancin buƙatun aikin gaba ɗaya yana da rauni, a cikin yanayin zafi da yanayin damina, aikin ayyukan injiniya yana kawo cikas, yawan canjin tashar ya ragu sosai idan aka kwatanta da watan da ya gabata. Samar da buƙatu yana da rauni a duka bangarorin biyu, kuma hukuncin mu na watan da ya gabata iri ɗaya ne, amma ƙimar kwangilar ta ƙaru ta hanyar babban birnin, wanda ke ƙara tayar da hankali a kasuwar tabo. Gabaɗaya, a cikin watan Yuli, ana tsammanin hauhawar, kuma an nuna matsayin babban kuɗin kuɗi a sarari. Bayan shiga watan Agusta, tsarin samar da hanyoyi biyu da ƙuntatawar buƙatu zai canza: a ɓangaren samarwa, saboda matsanancin aikin matse kayan aiki, wasu yankuna za su ci gaba da faɗaɗa sikelin ƙuntatawa na samarwa, samarwa yana da wahalar sakewa; a bangaren bukata, tare da samun saukin matsanancin yanayi, ana sa ran bukatar da aka jinkirta za ta murmure. Saboda haka, muna hasashen cewa a cikin watan Agusta za a inganta ƙera ƙarfe na gida da tsarin buƙatu, farashin ƙarfe da inertia zuwa sama. Koyaya, tare da haɓaka ƙuntatawa na samarwa, ƙarfe na ƙarfe na kwanan nan, ɓarna da sauran farashin albarkatun ƙasa sun faɗi zuwa wani matsayi, ana sa ran cibiyar ƙirar ƙarfe za ta yi ƙasa, fadada ribar bayan ikon ƙuntatawar samarwa ko ya raunana (ƙarfe murhun wutar lantarki baya cikin ƙuntatawa na gudanarwa). Bugu da kari, wasu gyare -gyaren manufofin rarar harajin fitar da kayayyakin da ake fitarwa na karafa zai rage yawan fitar da karafa a kasar Sin, karuwar ka’idojin kadarori, zai shafi saurin sakin bukatar da ke can kasa. -Ana sa ran cewa farashin rebar mai inganci a Shanghai a watan Agusta (dangane da alamar Xiben) zai kasance a tsakanin 5,500-5,800 yuan/ton.
Bita: Farashin karafa ya tashi sosai a watan Yuli
I. Binciken kasuwa
A watan Yuli na 2021, farashin karfen gini na cikin gida ya yi tashin gwauron zabo, har zuwa ranar 30 ga watan Yuli, aka rufe Index na Karfe na Westbourne a 5570, sama da 480 daga karshen watan da ya gabata.
Review of Yuli, ko da yake gargajiya bukatar kashe-kakar, amma na gida yi karfe karfe counter-Trend mafi girma, dalilin, yafi saboda manufofin gefe don kula da sako-sako da, kasuwa da ake sa ran zama mai kyau. Musamman, a farkon rabin shekarar, a cikin sakin ƙuntatawar samarwa da hasashen kasuwa wanda yanayin ya haɓaka, yawan farashin ƙarfe na ginin gida mafi girma; tsakiyar, injinan ƙarfe akai-akai suna haɓaka farashin tsoffin masana'anta, kasuwa kusa da samuwar haɗin gwiwa, farashi yana ƙaruwa don ƙara faɗaɗawa; marigayi, a yanayin zafi a kusa da ruwan sama da wasu yankuna ƙarƙashin tasirin guguwa, an toshe ginin aikin, sakin buƙatun m bai isa ba, hauhawar farashin ya ragu. Gabaɗaya, saboda ana sa ran ɓangaren samar da raguwar zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kasuwar babban birnin tana da haɓaka ƙima ga farashin daidai, wanda a ƙarshe ya haifar da farashin ƙarfe na ginin gida a cikin Yuli ya zarce tsammanin.
Farashin karafan gine -gine na cikin gida a watan Yuli bayan wani gagarumin matsa lamba, kasuwar watan Agusta ta tashi ko yanayin ya ci gaba? Waɗanne canje -canje za su faru ga mahimman masana'antu? Tare da tambayoyi da yawa, tare da rahoton nazarin kasuwar ƙarfe na cikin gida na watan Agusta.
Ⅱ, nazarin wadata
1, Binciken ƙirar ƙarfe na cikin gida na halin da ake ciki yanzu
Ya zuwa ranar 30 ga watan Yuli, jimlar babban nau'in karafan cikin gida ya kai tan 15,481,400, sama da tan 794,000 ko kashi 5.4% daga karshen watan Yuni, sannan ya ragu da tan 247,500 ko 1.6% daga makamancin lokacin bara. Daga cikin su, abubuwan da aka ƙirƙira na zaren, sandar waya, birgima mai zafi, birgima mai sanyi da matsakaicin farantin shine tan 8,355,700, tan 1,651,100, tan 2,996,800, tan 1,119,800 da tan 1,286,000. Baya ga raguwar da aka samu a hannun jari mai sanyi, abubuwan da aka ƙirƙira na sauran manyan nau'ikan baƙin ƙarfe guda biyar sun tashi zuwa wani matsayi, amma ba da yawa ba.
Dangane da nazarin bayanan, a cikin Yuli, wadatar da kasuwar ƙarfe na cikin gida da buƙata ya ninka. Bangaren buƙata: abubuwan da ke faruwa a lokutan bazara, aikin buƙatun m yana da rauni, a kusa da ƙimar ma'amaloli ya faɗi sosai idan aka kwatanta da Yuni, amma buƙatar hasashen kasuwa yana da kyau. Bangaren wadata: Bayan manufar murƙushe ƙarar ƙarfe a wasu larduna da biranen, ana sa ran yanke kayan zai yi ƙarfi. La'akari da cewa har yanzu za a ƙara haɓaka ƙuntatawa bayan shigar watan Agusta, yayin da ake sa ran aiwatar da buƙatun zai inganta, wanda ake sa ran narkar da kayan cikin.
2, nazarin yanayin samar da ƙarfe na cikin gida
Dangane da sabbin bayanai daga Kungiyar Karfe ta China, a tsakiyar watan Yulin 2021, manyan kamfanonin karfe masu kididdiga sun samar da tan 21,936,900 na danyen karafa, tan 19,089,000 na bakin karfe, tan 212,681,000 na karfe. Matsakaicin yawan amfanin yau da kullun a cikin wannan shekaru goma, danyen ƙarfe tan 2,193,700, karuwar ringgit 2.62% da 2.59% shekara-shekara; ƙarfe alade tan 1,908,900, ƙaruwar ringi na 2.63% da raguwar 0.01% shekara-shekara; karfe 2,126,800 ton, karuwar ringtit 8.35% da 4.29% shekara-shekara.
3, nazarin yanayin shigo da ƙarfe na gida da nazarin matsayin fitarwa
Dangane da Babban Hukumar Kwastam bayanai sun nuna cewa a watan Yuni na shekarar 2021, kasar Sin ta fitar da tan miliyan 6.458 na karafa, karuwar tan miliyan 1.1870, ko kashi 22.52%; ci gaban shekara-shekara na 74.5%; Janairu-Yuni jimlar fitar da karfe 37.382 tan na kasar Sin, wanda ya karu da kashi 30.2%. A watan Yuni da aka shigo da karfe na ton miliyan 1.252, ya ragu da kashi 33.4%; Jimillar kayayyakin da China ta shigo da su Daga watan Janairu zuwa Yuni, kasar Sin ta shigo da jimlar tan miliyan 7.349 na karafa, wanda ya karu da kashi 0.1% a shekara.
4, ana sa ran samar da karafan gini watan gobe
A watan Yuli, a karkashin tasirin manufar rage yawan samar da kayayyaki a cikin ƙasa, an bayar da wurare da yawa don rage aikin, wasu matsin lambar samar da yanki ya ragu sosai. Koyaya, tare da farashin ƙarfe ya ƙaru sosai, an gyara ribar ƙarfe, saurin raguwar wadata a kusa da rashin daidaituwa. La'akari da cewa bayan shiga watan Agusta, ƙuntatawar samar da ayyukan gudanarwa za ta ƙara ƙaruwa, amma rage yawan samar da kasuwa zai yi rauni, muna tsammanin wadatar kayan cikin gida a cikin watan Agusta ba zai sami koma baya ba.
Ⅲ, halin da ake buƙata
1, Shanghai gini karfe tallace -tallace Trend bincike
A watan Yuli, bukatar tashar cikin gida ta koma baya daga shekarar da ta gabata. A tsakiyar watan, a ƙarƙashin rinjayar yanayin zafi mai zafi, sakin buƙatun m ya yi rauni; a rabi na biyu na shekara, Gabashin China ta yi fama da yanayin guguwa, an rufe wasu rumbunan ajiye kaya, kuma harkokin kasuwanci sun samu cikas. Gabaɗaya, tasirin kashe-kashe yana da matukar mahimmanci, juyawa ya faɗi sosai daga zoben. Duk da haka, bayan shiga watan Agusta, ana sa ran ɓangaren buƙata zai ɗora kaɗan: a gefe ɗaya, ɓangaren tallafin yana da sauƙin sauƙi, kuma ana tsammanin za a sake buƙatar buƙatar da ta ragu a lokacin baya; a gefe guda kuma, yanayin zafi mai zafi yana sauƙaƙe, kuma ana sa ran amfani da ƙasa na ƙasa zai yi girma. Saboda haka, kasuwa tana da wasu tsammanin tsammanin buƙata a watan Agusta.
IV. Nazarin farashin
1, nazarin farashin albarkatun ƙasa
A watan Yuli, farashin albarkatun kasa ya fadi a wani bangare. Dangane da bayanan da Xiben New Trunk Line ya sa ido, ya zuwa ranar 30 ga watan Yuli, tsohon farashin masana'antar kwandon iskar gas a yankin Tangshan ya kai yuan/tan 5270, ya haura yuan/tan 360 idan aka kwatanta da farashin a karshen watan da ya gabata; farashin tarkace a yankin Jiangsu ya kai yuan/tan 3720, ya haura yuan/ton 80 idan aka kwatanta da karshen watan da ya gabata; farashin coke na sakandare a yankin Shanxi ya kai yuan 2440/ton, ya ragu da yuan/tan 120 idan aka kwatanta da farashin a ƙarshen watan da ya gabata; Farashin dandano 65-66 na baƙin ƙarfe a yankin Tangshan ya kai yuan 1600. Farashin baƙin ƙarfe na baƙin ƙarfe a yankin Tangshan ya kasance RMB1,600/ton, sama da RMB50/ton idan aka kwatanta da ƙarshen watan da ya gabata; Farashin 62% na baƙin ƙarfe ya kasance USD195/ton, ya sauka USD23.4/ton idan aka kwatanta da ƙarshen watan da ya gabata.
A wannan watan, raguwar ma'adinan da aka shigo da ita ya fito karara, an gyara ribar injin niƙa na ƙarfe.
2, ana sa ran farashin ginin karfe a watan gobe
M halin yanzu wadata da halin da ake bukata, muna sa ran: baƙin ƙarfe zai ci gaba da faɗuwa daga baya; wadataccen coke yana da ƙarfi, farashin ya ɗan tashi; rapaukar buƙatun ƙarfe ta ƙuntatawar samarwa, ƙuntatawar wutar lantarki, farashi ko babban rashi. Cikakken ra'ayi, ana sa ran farashin ƙarfe na ginin gida zai ɗan ragu kaɗan a watan Agusta.
V. Bayanin Macro
1, babbar hanyar dabaru ta tsakiya da ta gida "14 biyar" hanyar rage carbon masana'antu ta bayyana
A cikin mahallin iskar carbon, tsaka tsaki na carbon, daga ma'aikatar zuwa gida yana hanzarta canza masana'antar kore mai ƙarancin carbon. Mai ba da rahoto ya koyi cewa “Tsarin Shekaru 14 na Shekaru Biyar” don ci gaban koren masana'antu da “Tsarin Shekaru biyar na 14” don haɓaka masana'antar kayan albarkatun ƙasa za a sake su nan ba da jimawa ba, yayin da sassan da suka dace za su haɓaka tsare-tsaren aiwatar da carbon don marasa ƙarfi. karafa, kayan gini, ƙarfe da sauran manyan masana'antu, da fayyace raguwar carbon ɗin masana'antu Za a fayyace hanyar aiwatarwa, da haɓaka sabbin dabarun masana'antu da manyan masana'antun fasaha, kuma za a ƙara yawan amfani da makamashi mai tsabta. . Hakanan ana tura ƙauyuka don noma da haɓaka masana'antun kore, hanzarta aikace-aikacen fasahar bayanai na ƙarni na farko a masana'antar kore, da ƙirƙirar wuraren shakatawa da yawa da masana'antun kore, da sauransu, don hanzarta kore da ƙananan carbon. -bayar da ingancin masana'antu.
2, kasar Sin ta kara wasu harajin fitar da kayayyakin karafa, da soke ragin harajin fitarwa na kayayyakin da aka kara masu daraja
Kwamitin Kudin Haraji na Majalisar Jiha ya ba da sanarwar cewa, don haɓaka canji da haɓaka masana'antar ƙarfe da ingantaccen ci gaba, Kwamitin Kudin Haraji na Majalisar Jiha ya yanke shawarar haɓaka farashin fitarwa na ferrochrome da baƙin ƙarfe alade mai tsabta daga ranar 1 ga Agusta. 2021, bayan daidaita farashin harajin fitarwa na 40% da 20%, bi da bi. Bugu da kari, bisa sanarwar da Ma'aikatar Kudi da Hukumar Kula da Haraji ta Jiha suka bayar tare, tun daga ranar 1 ga Agustan 2021, kasar Sin kuma za ta soke ragin harajin fitar da kayayyaki kan kayayyakin karafa iri 23 kamar na karfe. Wannan shi ne gyara na biyu na harajin karfen na China tun daga wannan shekarar, gyaran farko na harajin a watan Mayu, tare da ci gaba da ragin harajin fitarwa wanda ya kunshi lambobin haraji 23 na manyan kayayyakin da aka kara masu daraja, a wannan karon duk an soke su.
3, Janairu-Yuni Kamfanonin masana’antu na ƙasa sama da girman ribar ya haura 66.9% shekara-shekara
Daga watan Janairu zuwa Yuni, a cikin manyan masana’antu 41, masana’antu 39 sun karu da yawan ribar da suke samu a shekara-shekara, masana’antu 1 sun mayar da asara zuwa riba, kuma masana’antu guda 1 sun tsaya cik. Babban ribar masana'antu shine kamar haka: ƙamshin ƙarfe mara ƙamshi da masana'antar sarrafa madaidaiciya jimlar ribar da aka samu ya karu da sau 2.73, masana'antar hakar mai da iskar gas ta ƙaru sau 2.49, masana'antar sarrafa baƙin ƙarfe da masana'antar sarrafa birgima ta ƙaru sau 2.34, albarkatun albarkatun sunadarai da masana'antun kera kayayyakin sunadarai sun karu da sau 1.77, hakar ma'adinai da masana'antar wanki ta karu da sau 1.14, masana'antar kera motoci ta karu da kashi 45.2%, kwamfuta, sadarwa da sauran masana'antun kera kayayyakin lantarki sun karu da kashi 45.2%, injunan lantarki da masana'antar kera kayan aiki sun karu da kashi 36.1 %, masana'antar kera kayan aiki gaba ɗaya ta haɓaka da kashi 34.5%, masana'antun kera kayan aiki na musamman sun haɓaka da kashi 31.0%, masana'antun samfuran ma'adanai waɗanda ba ƙarfe ba sun haɓaka da kashi 26.7%, wutar lantarki, samar da zafi da masana'antar samar da kayayyaki sun haɓaka da kashi 9.5%.
Ⅵ, kasuwar duniya
A watan Yunin 2021, hakar danyen ƙarfe na duniya na ƙasashe 64 da aka haɗa cikin ƙididdigar Ƙungiyar Karfe ta Duniya shine tan miliyan 167.9, ƙimar 11.6%.
Musamman, yawan danyen karfe na kasar Sin ya kai tan miliyan 93.9, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.5% a shekara; Yawan danyen karfe na Indiya ya kai tan miliyan 9.4, sama da kashi 21.4% a shekara; Yawan danyen karfe na kasar Japan ya kai tan miliyan 8.1, ya karu da kashi 44.4% a shekara; hakar danyen karfe na Amurka ya kai tan miliyan 7.1, ya karu da kashi 44.4% a shekara; An kiyasta yawan ƙarar da aka ƙera na ƙarfe na Rasha ya kai tan miliyan 6.4, ya ƙaru da kashi 11.4% a shekara; Koriya ta Kudu ta hako danyen karfe ya kai tan miliyan 6, wanda ya karu da kashi 17.35%; Jamus samar da danyen karfe na ton miliyan 3.4, karuwar kashi 38.2%; Turkiyya ta samar da danyen karfe na ton miliyan 3.4, wanda ya karu da kashi 17.9%; Barazil din da aka samar da ton miliyan 3.1, ya karu da kashi 45.2%; Iran ta yi kiyasin samar da tan miliyan 2.5, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.9%.
VII. M ra'ayi
A watan Yuli, an ƙarfafa ta ta hanyar kulawa ta ƙasa baki ɗaya, labarai na ƙuntatawa, farashin ƙarfe na ginin gida ya haifar da yanayin sake dawowa. A cikin lokacin, labarai na macro akai-akai, cikakken aiwatar da rage darajar; sake hasashe, kasuwar makoma ta tashi sosai; yayin da ake sa ran za a rage taƙaitaccen samarwa, masana'antun ƙarfe suna jan farashin tsoffin masana'anta. Farashin ƙarfe ya tashi a lokacin bazara, sama da yadda ake tsammani, galibi saboda manufar rage ƙarar baƙin ƙarfe a wurare da yawa ɗaya bayan ɗaya, wasu kamfanonin ƙarfe sun fara rage samarwa, matsin lamba don sauƙaƙe bayan kasuwar babban birnin don tura kalaman. Koyaya, tare da farashin suna ci gaba da hauhawa, ƙarancin buƙatun aikin gaba ɗaya yana da rauni, a cikin yanayin zafi da yanayin damina, aikin ayyukan injiniya yana kawo cikas, ƙimar ma'amala ta faɗi ƙasa sosai idan aka kwatanta da watan da ya gabata. Bayarwa da buƙatu suna da rauni a duka ɓangarorin biyu, kuma hukuncinmu na watan da ya gabata iri ɗaya ne, amma ƙimar kwangilar ta ƙaru sosai ta kasuwar babban birnin, ta ƙara tashin hankali a kasuwar tabo. Gabaɗaya, a cikin watan Yuli, ana tsammanin hauhawar, kuma an nuna matsayin babban kuɗin kuɗi a sarari. Bayan shiga watan Agusta, tsarin samar da hanyoyi biyu da ƙuntatawar buƙatu zai canza: a ɓangaren samarwa, saboda matsanancin aikin matse kayan aiki, wasu yankuna za su ci gaba da faɗaɗa sikelin ƙuntatawa na samarwa, samarwa yana da wahalar sakewa; a bangaren bukata, tare da samun saukin matsanancin yanayi, ana sa ran bukatar da aka jinkirta za ta murmure. Saboda haka, muna hasashen cewa a cikin watan Agusta za a inganta ƙera ƙarfe na gida da tsarin buƙatu, farashin ƙarfe da inertia zuwa sama. Koyaya, tare da haɓaka ƙuntatawa na samarwa, ƙarfe na ƙarfe na kwanan nan, ɓarna da sauran farashin albarkatun ƙasa sun faɗi zuwa wani matsayi, ana sa ran cibiyar ƙirar ƙarfe za ta yi ƙasa, fadada ribar bayan ikon ƙuntatawa ko ya raunana (ƙarfe murhun wutar lantarki baya cikin ƙuntatawar samarwa na gudanarwa). Bugu da kari, wasu gyare -gyaren manufofin ragin harajin fitar da kayayyakin kayayyakin da aka yi da karfe za su rage yawan fitar da karafa a kasar Sin, karuwar ka’idar kadara, za ta yi tasiri kan saurin sakin bukatar da ke can kasa.
Ana sa ran cewa farashin rebar mai inganci a Shanghai a watan Agusta zai kasance tsakanin 5,500-5,800 yuan/ton.
Lokacin aikawa: Aug-01-2021